With the 2024 US election over, S&P Global Mobility
discusses our expectations for the next four years. At a broad
level, these issues are expected to directly affect the US auto
industry:
- The perception of an existential threat from mainland Chinese
automakers and technology companies; - Positions on environmental policy, particularly as relates to
vehicle emissions and safety regulations; - Trade policy as it relates to both USMCA and potential for
national security tariffs; and - Positions relative to unions and labor.
In our
updated special report, we discuss how we see several key areas
unfolding under this Republican White House. While the winner of
the US presidency has now been resolved, it is just one piece of a
complex environment, and we still advise that a scenario mindset
remains critical for stakeholder decision-making. Critical
decisions need to consider business and market demand issues in the
context of upper and lower bounds derived from plausible scenarios,
along with a baseline forecast.
We expect to see that one dominant trait of the incoming White
House Administration will be speed, and pressure to rethink how
things are done to make sure change happens faster.
The new Administration will challenge old norms and assumptions.
Under President Trump’s first term, he pushed for legislative and
executive order changes to happen more quickly and made decisions
faster than most previous presidents. It is likely that trait will
be accentuated with the second term. The executive branch agencies
are expected to be pushed to speed processes and reach conclusions
faster, with a goal of implementing changes to regulations more
quickly.
For the auto industry, there is a likelihood that the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) develop rule-making proposals much
more quickly. However, there are legally-defined provisions for
getting public feedback which may not be able to be shortened. But
the agencies can be pushed to develop analysis and proposals much
faster than has traditionally been made.
As procedures are written today, steps may not be able to be
skipped, but the time allocated and methods by which research and
validation of proposals are undertaken move much more quickly. And
it should not be presumed that it is impossible to change some of
the procedural requirements.
Our special report offers a deep dive into the following
topics:
- The first 100 days under the new Administration
- 2028+ federal emissions and fuel economy regulations
- Inflation Reduction Act funding future
- Mainland China sourcing tariffs, and potential for Mexico
tariffs - California: Does its ability to regulate emissions
continue? - 2026 USMCA Review
- Assumptions affecting total industry volume (TIV)
- Autonomous vehicles: Regulatory wild card
Read the full report
Inquire about our custom scenario workshops
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
