US manufacturers are competing for market share of full-size
half ton pickups.
The full-size half ton pickup segment in the US gets significant
attention from the media, analysts, and several manufacturers. Yet,
it is only the fourth-largest segment in the industry.
The exceptional attention paid to this vehicle category is due
to several facts, including:
- Three of the pickup models are volume leaders for their
respective brands as well as industry wide. - The segment is one of the few in which domestic manufacturers
still hold a commanding position. - Owners tend to have high brand loyalty.
- The vehicles are highly profitable for their respective
OEMs. - The underlying architectures of these models are also the basis
for full-size SUVs, resulting in scale that drives high
profits-per-vehicle across both segments.
Given this landscape, it is noteworthy that the relative
positions of several entries in this segment have shifted
recently—particularly the Toyota Tundra.
The Tundra has not historically been a leader for the company,
compared to most other Toyota products which rank in the top three
in their respective segments. The Tundra has lagged behind most
competitors and its position deteriorated from 2014 through 2021
(See Figure 1).
However, Toyota introduced an all-new Tundra in the US in late
2021 as a 2022 model year vehicle (significant new retail
registrations first appeared in December 2021). Designed and
engineered in the US, this vehicle offers content, technology, and
a breadth of features that are much more in line with domestic
competitors than past Tundra models.
New features of the 2022 Tundra include:
- Aluminum-block, twin-turbo 3.5-liter V6 engine as standard,
mated to a 10-speed automatic transmission; this engine delivers
389 horsepower and 479 pound-feet of torque, more power and torque
than some competitive V8 powertrains. - High-strength, fully boxed, steel-ladder frame, using aluminum
in key areas for weight reduction. - Sheet-molded compound bed with reinforced aluminum cross
members. - Interior with an instrument panel dominated by a horizontally
mounted 14-inch touch screen. - Capstone high-end series, with upgraded materials, luxury
interior, and improved technologies as standard; this series
provides competition to the F-150 King Ranch and Platinum and
Sierra Denali series.
Loyalty Also Improves for Tundra in Tandem with Share
Growth
S&P Global Mobility registration and loyalty data clearly
indicate that the Tundra's market performance began to improve at
almost the same time as the new version arrived at Toyota stores.
As Figure 2 indicates, Tundra's retail share of the full-size half
ton pickup segment more than doubled from 3.7% in December 2021 to
8.4% in April 2022.
In April 2024, Tundra's retail share reached a record 15.3%,
more than four times its share back in December 2021 when the new
version arrived. It is also noteworthy that Tundra now (as of
April) ranks #4 in the segment, ahead of all models except the
Silverado 1500, F-150, and Sierra 1500.
The improvements in Tundra's conquest/ defection ratios
(conquests or inflow divided by defections or outflow) with key
competitors also illustrate Tundra's significantly improved
performance since the arrival of the re-designed version.
As Figure 3 indicates, in 2021 Tundra had a net outflow with
each of its three main competitors in every month except two.
However, beginning in the early months of 2022, with the new Tundra
now available, its ratio began to rise and has been greater than
1.0 (indicating net inflow) with all three models every month since
February 2024. Impressively, Tundra's ratio with F-150 and Ram 1500
surpassed 2.0 in several of these months.
Finally, Tundra's loan monthly payment data suggest Toyota was
able to command a payment equal to the upscale Sierra 1500 for much
of the 2023 calendar year and above that of all other competitors,
followed by a segment-leading payment in each of the four months in
2024 for which S&P Global Mobility has complete data. Moreover,
Tundra's payment reached a near-term record of $1,014 in March of
2024 exceeding Silverado 1500 and F-150 monthly payments by 23% and
21%, respectively.
Maintaining share in this segment is crucial for domestic US
manufacturers to generate the profits needed to develop EVs, which
currently bleed red ink for most, if not all, manufacturers.
Toyota, on the other hand, sees this category as the one remaining
space left to conquer in the huge US retail new vehicle market.
The bottom line is that every make will be battling for every
possible full-size half ton pickup sale in the coming months.
Demo Our Loyalty Analytics Tool
