Sales Of 100% Fossil-Fueled Cars Are Declining In US

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Some people get positively giddy with joy when they hear that sales of electric cars are not increasing as quickly as expected. But lo and behold, according to a new report from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, vehicles with internal combustion engines saw the biggest market share loss of any vehicle category in the first half of 2024, dropping by 2.3%. While those vehicles still make up a majority of new car sales, their dominance is decreasing as consumers buy more hybrids (HEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and battery electric cars (EVs) rather than traditional gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles. This builds on years of decline for gas-powered cars. “Gas car sales were down 14% in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2019,” CleanTechnica recently shared in its quarterly US EV sales report.

Internal Combustion Sales Down

Autoblog reports that fewer than 10 years ago, sales of vehicles powered solely by internal combustion engines made up virtually the entire US car market — about 97% in 2016. But that long standing reality has quickly changed, with alternatively-powered vehicles on track to take a quarter of all new car sales in the next few years. This year, ICE vehicles made up 78% of new car sales, down about 18% since before the pandemic. In that time, hybrids, EVs, and PHEVs have all seen significant growth in the US thanks to expanded manufacturer offerings and generous federal and state credits.

In the second quarter of 2024, the AAI report says automakers sold about 386,000 electrified vehicles (including battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles) in the United States, representing nearly 10% of overall light-duty vehicle sales. This represents a 0.6 percentage point market share increase over the first quarter of 2024, which equates to an increase of about 42,000 vehicle sales. EV sales volume in the second quarter is the highest on record, about 8,300 vehicles more than the next highest quarter, which was the third quarter of 2023.

More than 730,000 EVs — including hybrids and plug-in hybrids — were sold in the first half of 2024, 9.7 percent of all light vehicle sales and an increased market share of 0.81 percentage points over the first half of 2023. The total volume of all light-duty sales for the first half of the year is up 1.4% from the same period a year ago. From 2016 through the second quarter of 2024, traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) market share steadily declined. In 2016, 100% fossil-fueled vehicles comprised more than 97% of all vehicle sales. Through the second quarter of 2024, the year-to-date fossil-fueled vehicle share dropped to 78% for an overall loss of 19.1%. The ICE market share loss was replaced by increases in the share of traditional hybrids, BEVs, and PHEVs. Traditional hybrids made up most of the gains (+10.3%) followed by BEVs (+7.1%) and PHEVs (+1.7%) over the last eight and a half years.

Although the ICE market share has continued to retreat in 2024, the speed of that decline has slowed compared to pandemic-era years, Autoblog says. While consumers continue to switch to alternatives to fossil-powered vehicles, that transition won’t always happen at the same speed from year to year. “The market was never going to make a smooth transition to EVs, and we expected a slowdown in this shift as early adopters were satisfied,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. “Moving on to less tech savvy buyers will slow the EV market share growth over the next few years.”

Mourning The Loss Of Internal Combustion Cars

The shift away from conventional cars powered by internal combustion engines has caused grumbling in some quarters. Some consumers, it seems, don’t actually want to buy hybrids or EVs but are practically forced to as manufacturers continue to electrify their lineups. For example, US sales at Toyota are up 5.5% so far this year, but its sales of EVs and hybrids are up 58%. It could be that people genuinely like the benefits that EVs and hybrids offer. Another explanation is that Toyota simply doesn’t sell as many ICE models now, which will inherently limit the number that can be sold.

For instance, the newest models of the Toyota Camry, which is perennially one of the best selling cars in the United States, are only offered as hybrids. To some, that equates to Toyota practically forcing people to buy a hybrid. Yet, there are alternatives. The Honda Accord, for instance, still offers 100% internal combustion fossil power for those who want it. Hyundai and Kia both sell conventional sedans in the US that are powered by gasoline engines. The complaints are likely being miffed because Ford no longer sells its once popular Country Squire wagon, a car that once defined the genteel middle class suburban lifestyle. Personally, I was offended when Jaguar stopped powering its cars with dual overhead cam six cylinder engines. A Jag without that magnificent beast of an engine under the bonnet could never be a real Jaguar, could it?

Whether the shift away from ICE vehicles is coming from the bottom up — consumer demands — or the top down — manufacturer offerings — the trend is clear, Autoblog says. The peak days for the internal combustion engine are now behind us. While EV growth has slowed, it doesn’t change the reality that vehicles with infernal combustion engines are gradually falling out of favor. As hybrids continue to gain popularity and EV technology advances, the traditional gasoline-powered car may soon find itself being no longer the dominant choice in the automotive market.

The Takeaway

Those of us who are advocates for electric cars may look upon hybrids and plug-in hybrids as interlopers that should not be taking sales away from true battery-powered cars. But they may be a necessary component of the transition to electric cars as they educate people to the fact that there are alternatives to conventional cars. Perhaps we should welcome that aspect of hybrids and plug-in hybrids as we continue to press for more pure battery-electric cars.

In the final analysis, if people buy a hybrid Camry and get used to visiting the gas station less frequently because the car gets 5 or 10 miles per gallon more than the conventional car they used to drive, they aren’t likely to willingly go back to a gas guzzler in the future. Call hybrids a gateway to the clean transportation future. It’s not the ideal situation, but if it’s the best we can get, so be it. The news that the percentage of conventional cars in the new car mix is dropping is cause for a celebration, albeit a quiet one.