Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals,
registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date,
short-term production forecast available.
Here's a close look at global production data by region and our
updated November production forecast.
Top Takeaways for the Month
Light vehicle production forecasts are mixed globally, with
notable downgrades in Europe and South Asia, while Greater China
sees an upward revision due to improved sales from government
scrappage subsidies. The US elections have introduced uncertainties
that are expected to negatively affect BEV volumes and the
electrification mix. Overall, the 2024 production outlook is
slightly stronger, but ongoing inventory management and demand
dynamics continue to pose challenges across various regions.
Noteworthy Adjustments
Europe: The light vehicle production outlook
for Europe has been downgraded by 92,000 units for 2024, primarily
due to reduced forecasts for Stellantis and Volvo. Concerns over
potential strikes and production disruptions, including flooding in
Spain, have further impacted the forecast.
Greater China: Greater China's production
outlook has been increased by 409,000 units for 2024, driven by a
recovery in sales supported by scrappage subsidies. The market is
expected to grow by 2.4% year-over-year, although economic
uncertainties may temper future projections.
Japan/Korea: Japan's production outlook for
2025 has been upgraded by 39,000 units, with Toyota expected to
maintain strong momentum. In contrast, South Korea's production
forecast for 2024 has been reduced by 12,000 units due to
disappointing domestic sales and exports.
North America: North America's production
outlook remains largely unchanged and continues to generally
reflect needed inventory correction. Ford's production for 2025 has
been revised down by 45,000 units on the expected need to de-stock
as we enter the new year. Additionally, production for Stellantis
for 2024 was reduced by 48,000 units due to meaningful production
downtime in Q4-2024 in order to rein in elevated inventories.
South America: The South American light vehicle
production outlook has been increased by 23,000 units for 2024,
attributed to stronger-than-expected production results in Brazil
and Argentina. Adjustments for 2025 and 2026 were minor, focusing
on vehicle timing changes.
South Asia: South Asia's production outlook has
been reduced by 63,000 units for 2024, driven by production
weaknesses in the ASEAN market and high inventory levels in India.
Downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect incremental domestic
and export demand challenges, particularly in the ASEAN market.
Download a free light vehicle production forecast sample
here.
