On a volume estimate of 1.18 million units, US light vehicle
sales in September are expected to realize a calendar-induced
decline of approximately 12% year-over-year.
On the bright side, this would translate to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million units, a notable bump
from the 15.2 million unit reading in August and sustaining a
volatile pattern for this monthly metric since May. The
month-to-month volatility in the SAAR reading reflects the current
state of auto demand.
“New vehicle sales remain stuck in neutral,” said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“The overall tenor of the auto demand environment remains one of
consistent, but unmotivated volume levels as consumers in the
market continue to be pressured by high interest rates and
slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high
monthly payments.”
Despite increasing to 2.88 million units at the end of August,
dealer advertised inventory in the US has also largely leveled out
since the spring. “With 2025 model year vehicles now becoming
available at an increased rate (up 65% vs. July), pressure to sell
down remaining stock of 2024 model year vehicles will begin to
mount,” suggests
Matt Trommer, associate director of product at S&P Global
Mobility.
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected,
but given reports of some automakers culling output expectations
for the remainder of the year, affordability issues are expected to
remain stubbornly sticky even as the first interest rate cut was
made. In our September 2024 forecast update, we’ve lowered our
calendar year 2024 US sales outlook to 15.9 million units, down
from a previous projection of 16.0 million units. Similarly,
our light vehicle production outlook for North America has also
been downgraded to a 2024 calendar year projection of 15.5 million
units, reflecting vehicle timing and inventory correction
impacts.
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term light vehicle sales
forecast. According to S&P Global Mobility’s new registration
data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% in both June and July,
progress from levels earlier in the year. In the immediate term,
moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated. September BEV
share is expected to remain above 8% once again.
Assisted by the current roll outs of vehicles such as the
Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue and to be followed by new
BEVs such as the Polestar 3, Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID.
Buzz slated for release in the fourth quarter, electric vehicle
sales are expected to advance over the remainder of the year.
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Forecast.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
