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The Paris Motor Show made its return to the exhibition center in
Port de Versailles for this biennial event last week. While there
were not quite so many automakers in attendance as at the events
prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the OEM support for the event is
far better than it was in 2022.
In 2024, the theme seemed to be new energy. Many automakers
unveiled new products that represent current trends in Europe and
reflect some of the key issues facing the automotive sector in the
region.
As ever, the local brands were out in force, which is
unsurprising given that Peugeot, Citroën, Renault, and adopted
brand Dacia occupied four of the top five passenger car brand slots
in France during the first nine months of 2024. Three of these four
brands’ product announcements were focused on the expansion of
their battery electric vehicle (BEV) portfolio; many automakers are
staring down the barrel of being unable to meet new EU
light-vehicle CO2 targets, which will be introduced from 2025.
Peugeot only showed enhancements to its current lineup of
vehicles, such as the long-range versions of the battery electric
e-3008 and e-5008 alongside the new battery electric e-408.
However, its Stellantis stablemate Citroën showed a concept of the
next-generation C5 Aircross that will incorporate a battery
electric powertrain for the first time; it uses the same STLA
Medium platform as the new Peugeot 3008 and 5008. This platform
will become a key architecture used by Stellantis’s European
compact and mid-size product lineup in future.
Unlike Stellantis, Renault Group is hoping that standalone BEV
models rather than vehicles based on existing passenger cars will
help to encourage customers to make the transition from internal
combustion engine (ICE) powertrain products. For its latest launch,
the company has delved into its back catalogue of fondly remembered
models, with the Renault 4 E-Tech sub-compact crossover reviving
the memory of the Renault 4 that was built between 1961 and 1992.
It follows in the footsteps of the Renault 5 E-Tech sub-compact
hatchback that was launched at the last Geneva Motor Show
(Switzerland) in February, with both using the modern AmpR Small
platform and cutting-edge technologies, wrapped in retro-familiar
styling.
Other new BEV products that were unveiled in Paris include
Renault Group’s Alpine’s A390_β concept, which previews a new
mid-size crossover that will go some way towards expanding the
brand’s presence in the marketplace when it is officially launched
in production guise next year. The vehicle will also help its
parent company capture customers at a higher price point. At the
same time, Audi showed its rakish Audi Q6 e-tron Sportback mid-size
battery electric crossover, while BMW Group’s Mini revealed a
higher-performance John Cooper Works Electric variant of the Aceman
crossover alongside the similarly modified Cooper hatchback.
Products introduced at the event also highlighted how OEMs are
using the crossover and sport utility vehicle (SUV) body styles to
expand their lineups and win over customers. As well as many of the
battery electric products noted before, other launches featured
internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrains. This includes Dacia
unveiling the Bigster, which will broaden the brand’s lineup as its
largest model to date. The Volkswagen (VW) brand brought the Tayron
to market, a new spacious crossover that will sit between the
Tiguan and Touareg in its range in Europe.
Alongside European automakers, several Chinese automakers have
revealed products that will support their respective pushes into
the European market. These include BEVs as well as SUVs across
multiple fuel types. A notable presence among this group is
Leapmotor, which formed part of Stellantis’s presence at the event
thanks to its investment in the Chinese automaker and its majority
shareholding in the Leapmotor International joint venture (JV). As
well as displaying the battery electric T03 city car and C10
mid-size crossover which are the first models that it is selling in
Europe, it also made the global debut of the new battery electric
B10 compact crossover. Although few details have been made
available, we do know that it will be underpinned by Leapmotor’s
new LEAP 3.5 architecture, which integrates advanced driver
assistance systems (ADAS), a customizable digital cockpit and
“intelligent driving capabilities.”
Another brand hoping to generate interest in their new products
before fully entering Europe is GAC Group, with its AION V battery
electric compact crossover, while BYD has revealed it will flesh
out its own lineup in the region with the larger Sealion 7 battery
electric crossover that will come as it expands its retail network
in the region during the next year or so. Xpeng and Skywell also
made reveals and debuts at this event.
The push by Chinese automakers is continuing despite the
European Commission’s anti-subsidy investigation into BEVs imported
from China, which is on course to impose tariffs of between 7.8%
and 35.4% on top of an existing 10% passenger car import tariff
from November 2024. S&P Global Mobility forecasts that tariffs
will dampen imports of Chinese-built passenger cars to the EU
compared with our expectations before the provisional tariffs were
announced; we still expect volumes to grow for several years to
come due to a combination of a growing number of brands and
products being introduced from China, as well as some expected BEV
shipments being replaced by other powertrain types.
Our current forecast shows that 508,700 passenger cars built in
China were registered in the EU during 2023, which will rise to
563,100 units in 2024. However, we expect a surge to 812,700 units
in 2025 and they will reach a peak of 977,600 units in 2027 before
sliding back in the years beyond. Part of the reason for this is
sourcing for these vehicles is changing, helped in part by
investments being made in and around the EU under pre-existing
plans. This includes BYD’s plans to build vehicles in Hungary and
Turkey.
Looking at the wider EU passenger car market, S&P Global
Mobility is anticipating an easing of the EU’s CO2 targets toward
2035, as well as a delay to the effective end-of-sale deadline for
ICE passenger cars until 2040. In the nearer term, we are currently
forecasting that passenger car registrations in the EU will rise by
a modest 1.9% year over year to 10.80 million units in 2024.
Registrations this year are also forecast to be about 12.5% below
the five-year average between 2015 and 2019, prior to the
disruptive events of recent years. We now also expect passenger car
registrations in the EU to remain under 11 million units in
2025.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
