A couple of decades ago, hydrogen fuel cells were hailed as a revolutionary technology that could transform the automotive industry. Promising zero emissions and a driving experience comparable to gasoline vehicles, hydrogen-powered cars were seen as a strong contender alongside battery electric vehicles (EVs) in the race to decarbonize transportation. Both technologies offered a path to eliminate climate-polluting gasoline, and for a time, it seemed that hydrogen might even outpace its battery-powered counterpart.
However, fast-forward to today, and the landscape looks very different. While EVs have surged ahead, with major automakers rapidly electrifying their fleets and expanding charging networks, hydrogen vehicles have struggled to gain a foothold. Only a few hydrogen models are available on the market, and they remain a niche option. So, what happened to the once-promising technology poised to revolutionize the automotive industry? This article will explore the factors that have hindered the widespread adoption of hydrogen vehicles and examine the challenges they face in competing with the growing dominance of EVs.
The Promise
Hydrogen, as the lightest element, holds immense potential as a clean energy source. When combined with oxygen, it produces electricity through electrolysis, releasing water as a byproduct. This promising alternative to fossil fuels emitting harmful greenhouse gases paints a picture of a future powered by hydrogen. For this reason, several key players in the auto industry have envisioned hydrogen fuel cells as the key to zero-emission driving in transportation, potentially surpassing battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, that has yet to be the case.
Hydrogen fuel cells have a rich history that dates back to the 1990s when industry heavyweight Ballard Power Systems made a groundbreaking discovery when their fuel cell stack reached a power density of 700 watts per kilogram. This breakthrough allowed hydrogen fuel cells to start competing with traditional internal combustion engines (ICE) in terms of performance, paving the way for their use in larger vehicles like buses and trucks such as Kenworth’s Class 8 zero emissions T680 hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV), powered by Toyota fuel cell technology.
Researchers and manufacturers worldwide have made further advancements in hydrogen fuel cell technology in the last twenty years. Although there were brief periods when hydrogen fuel cell vehicles appeared to be the industry’s next big thing, they’ve never really taken off, and based on the current market trends and predictions, they probably never will.
The Current Landscape for Hydrogen Vehicles
As of 2024, the sales and adoption of hydrogen cars (FCEVs) significantly lag behind battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Only two hydrogen cars, the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo, are on the roads. The Mirai, the ‘best-selling’ of the two, had its best year in 2023 in the U.S., with 2,737 sales units. In contrast, the Nexo sold only 25 units last year. In 2024, the Mirai has sold less than 300 units so far. To put these sales figures in perspective, the Tesla Model 3, a BEV counterpart, sold 220,910 units last year, highlighting the substantial difference in popularity between FCEVs and BEVs.
BMW is developing its iX5 Hydrogen, a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) that uses Toyota fuel cells. This model represents a significant step forward in hydrogen car technology and showcases hydrogen’s potential as a clean and efficient alternative to traditional gasoline-powered vehicles. BMW has announced plans to make the iX5 Hydrogen available to the public around 2030. This timeline suggests that the company is confident in the technology’s readiness and the growing market potential for hydrogen vehicles.
Factors That Play Against FCEVs
Cost of Ownership
One of the main factors preventing the adoption of fuel-cell electric vehicles, more commonly known as hydrogen-powered cars, is their price tags and total cost of ownership. The two mainstream hydrogen cars we mentioned on sale in the U.S. today, the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo, start at around $50,000 and $63,000, respectively. On the other hand, the decreasing cost of lithium-ion batteries is making battery electric vehicles more accessible.
According to Dr. Sergey Paltsev, Dr. Deputy Director of the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, although the lifetime cost of ownership for fuel cell vehicles has decreased, it still exceeds that of gasoline and electric cars, primarily due to the high cost of hydrogen fuel. He acknowledges hydrogen’s potential benefits but noted substantial challenges, such as the high costs and infrastructural demands associated with its production and use.
Refueling Infrastructure
Hydrogen cars face a significant challenge due to the severe lack of refueling infrastructure. With scarce hydrogen stations, it becomes difficult for consumers to refuel their vehicles, reducing their practicality. Additionally, the high cost of building and maintaining hydrogen refueling stations and uncertainty about the future of hydrogen vehicles deter potential investors, further slowing infrastructure development. While hydrogen offers advantages such as quick refueling, which resembles the pump-and-go experience of gasoline cars, plus longer driving ranges compared to most electric vehicles (EVs), its lack of infrastructure makes it difficult to scale.
Unlike EVs, which benefit from an established electrical grid, hydrogen cars require a new, costly infrastructure, posing a significant barrier to widespread adoption. Despite heavy government subsidies and investments in hydrogen, the industry faces a chicken-and-egg problem: without refueling stations, consumers are hesitant to buy hydrogen cars, and without cars, the infrastructure remains underdeveloped.
Fuel Efficiency
Due to the complex hydrogen production process, hydrogen cars are less energy-efficient than battery electric cars. This process involves generating hydrogen through electrolysis, compressing, transporting, and storing it, and finally converting it into electricity via a fuel cell. According to Transportation & Environment, this results in about 68% efficiency from tank to wheel.
In contrast, battery electric cars directly use electricity stored in batteries, with minimal energy loss, achieving around 94% efficiency. This higher efficiency means battery electric cars require less energy to travel the same distance, making them more energy-efficient overall.
Sustainability
Among the many crucial challenges hydrogen cars face in achieving mass adoption is how hydrogen is made. Gray hydrogen is produced from natural gas, releasing CO2 into the atmosphere, making it the cheapest but least environmentally friendly option. Blue hydrogen also comes from natural gas, but carbon capture technology is used to trap the CO2, reducing emissions. However, it is more expensive.
Green hydrogen uses renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, producing no carbon emissions. While it is the most sustainable, green hydrogen is currently the most costly due to the high energy demand and the need for substantial clean electricity. This presents a significant scalability challenge, just as the growing demand for electric vehicles requires more clean electricity for charging.
Conclusion
While hydrogen fuel cells once promised to revolutionize the automotive industry, they have struggled to compete with the rapid advancements and widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles. Despite their potential for zero emissions and long driving ranges, hydrogen cars face significant challenges, including high costs, limited refueling infrastructure, and lower energy efficiency than EVs.
The complexities of hydrogen production and the need for substantial clean energy further complicate their scalability. As EVs dominate the market, hydrogen vehicles remain a niche option, facing an uphill battle to achieve mass adoption.
